Each year LBMA members forecast precious metal prices including gold for the next year. For several years now, Ross Norman of The Bullion Desk in London has been one of the most bullish and most accurate forecasters.
We present below a table in ascending order of maximum price forecast for the year to date (YTD), with the YTD figure included in its correct place in the body of the table itself. This gives a quick visual indication of whose maximum forecast was closest.
2011 LBMA Gold Price Forecasts in US Dollars
| Name | High | Low | Average | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Robin Bhar - Crédit Agricole CIB
|
$1,550 | $1,280 | $1,445 | $270 |
|
Peter Fertig - QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd
|
$1,550 | $1,300 | $1,450 | $250 |
|
Rohit Savant - CPM Group
|
$1,550 | $1,280 | $1,370 | $270 |
|
Daniel Smith - Standard Chartered
|
$1,550 | $1,250 | $1,400 | $300 |
|
James Steel - HSBC Bank USA NA
|
$1,550 | $1,200 | $1,450 | $350 |
|
Bhargava Vaidya - B.N. Vaidya & Associates
|
$1,550 | $1,250 | $1,375 | $300 |
|
David Wilson - Société Générale
|
$1,550 | $1,320 | $1,485 | $230 |
|
Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach - Heraeus Metallhandelsgesellschaft m.b.H.
|
$1,550 | $1,190 | $1,325 | $360 |
|
Bob Takai - Sumitomo Corporation
|
$1,590 | $1,240 | $1,390 | $350 |
|
Carl Firman - VM Group
|
$1,605 | $1,250 | $1,457 | $355 |
|
David Jollie - Mitsui & Co Precious Metals Inc
|
$1,610 | $1,310 | $1,485 | $300 |
|
Suki Cooper - Barclays Capital
|
$1,620 | $1,300 | $1,495 | $320 |
|
Tom Kendall - Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Ltd
|
$1,630 | $1,285 | $1,490 | $345 |
|
Average forecasts
|
$1,633 | $1,268 | $1,457 | $365 |
|
René Hochreiter - Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd
|
$1,650 | $1,350 | $1,475 | $300 |
|
Michael Jansen - JPMorgan Securities
|
$1,650 | $1,190 | $1,463 | $460 |
|
Jeffrey Rhodes - INTL Commodities DMCC
|
$1,650 | $1,150 | $1,451 | $500 |
|
Anne-Laure Tremblay - BNP Paribas
|
$1,650 | $1,330 | $1,500 | $320 |
|
Matthew Turner - Mitsubishi Corporation International (Europe) Plc
|
$1,653 | $1,270 | $1,465 | $383 |
|
Philip Klapwijk - GFMS Ltd
|
$1,673 | $1,335 | $1,477 | $338 |
|
Jörg Ceh - Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
|
$1,700 | $1,200 | $1,450 | $500 |
|
Edel Tully - UBS
|
$1,700 | $1,250 | $1,550 | $450 |
|
Bayram Dincer - LGT Capital Management
|
$1,777 | $1,222 | $1,499 | $555 |
|
Frederic Panizzutti - MKS Finance S.A.
|
$1,780 | $1,320 | $1,502 | $460 |
|
Ross Norman - Sharps Pixley Ltd
|
$1,850 | $1,350 | $1,513 | $500 |
|
YTD actual at 06-Oct-11
|
$1897 | $1316 | $1537 | $581 |
LBMA Press Release
Friday 7 January 2011
PRESS NOTICE
FORECAST 2011 PREDICTS PRICE OF $1457 FOR GOLD
Following are tables summarising the results of Forecast 2011, the LBMA's annual survey on the direction of precious metal prices for the coming year. A total of 24 contributors have given us their estimates for the high, low and average price for 2011 for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, based on the London fixings, with a brief commentary on the major influences and activity for each metal covered.
In 2011, Forecast contributors predict rises for all precious metals for the second year in a row. Their average gold forecast is US$1,457, a 19.0% increase on the 2010 average price, similar to the forecast of $1,450 made by delegates at the 2010 LBMA Precious Metals Conference in Berlin last September. Analysts predict that the average silver price will be $29.88, a 48.0% rise on the 2010 average price.
The average 2011 Platinum price is forecast to rise 12.6% from the average 2010 price, to $1,813 and palladium shows no sign of slowing down with an average 2011 price prediction of $814.65, a 54.8% increase on last year's bumper average price.
2010 was a very good year for LBMA forecasters. Their average gold price prediction of $1,199, a 23.4% increase on the 2009 price, was just $26 lower than the actual average price of $1,225. All metals rose as predicted, although silver and palladium exceeded almost everyone's expectations.
The full survey, including specially written commentaries and a deeper look at the historical performance of the Forecast, will be published in mid January and will also be posted on the LBMA website.
2010 Forecast winners were congratulated in a press release on Tuesday 4th January.
Our Forecast?
We couldn't remember what our guess was for 2011, and thought we had omitted to published or recorded it.
Then we noticed that on last year's page, we said we would not be surprised to see gold reach the $1,700 mark. Not too bad for a "guess".
Update October 2011
Gold has broken new record dollar highs many times so far during 2011, as at 6th October, and it has beaten all 24 of the LBMA members' forecasts.
Ross Norman, as often, was the closest.
Longer Term
With much evidence of competitive devaluation and quantitative easing worldwide, we believe that gold has much higher to go. Some goldbugs have been talking about $8,500 per ounce, but we regard this type of forecast as being from the lunatic fringe, even though some of the pundits have advanced convincing arguments to back their opinions.
Last year we wrote that we would not be surprised to see $1,700 "next year" (2011), and added that "If confiidence in the U.S. dollar ever crashes, then every forecast may prove to be too low",
There are still uncertainties and fears about the debts of a number of western countries, and some sovereign credit ratings now stand at junk or near junk. Failure, or near total collapse, of one or more major currencies cannot be ruled out. We remain unconvinced that the dollar will hold its value or purchasing power. Attempts by central banks to gently weaken their currencies can, and have, gone wrong and got out of hand. It will happen again, and it could happen to the mighty dollar, which does not have guaranteed immunity.
Some heavyweight forecasters have been talking about $2,500 in 2012. We would not like to bet against this figure, but our present guess is $2,250 high, $1,500 low, $1,900 average.
Comments
Last year, out of the 24 individual forecasts, 22 had been surpassed as at 2nd December. Almost incredibly, the lowest "high" forecast was actually less than the year's all time low! The "average of all the forecasts has been bettered by 10%.
Of the 24 forecasters, Ross Norman's was the most bullish, but gold surpassed his forecast price on 19th August hitting $1,862; so Ross was the closest yet again, passing the winning post two thirds of the way into the race!
2011 Final Review
We will try to revise this page in January 2012, with our final review of the year.
Will it hit $2,000 before the end of 2011? As of early October, it looks unlikely, but you never know!
Relevant Gold Price Pages
Live Spot Gold in 3 Currencies, Dollar, Euros, Sterling
Highest Gold Price in Euros (EUR) - June 2010
Highest Gold Price in Pounds Sterling (GBP) - June 2010
Highest Gold Price in $ US Dollars (USD) - September 2010
Highest Gold Price in all 3 Currencies - September 2010
Historic Gold Price Tables & Chart 1975 - 2004
2009 LBMA Gold Price Forecasts With our comments.
2010 LBMA Gold Price Forecasts With our comments.
2012 LBMA Gold Price Forecasts With our comments.
The World Gold Council compile regular and abundant statistics on the gold market.
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