Each year LBMA members forecast precious metal prices including gold for the next year. For several years now, Ross Norman of The Bullion Desk in London has been one of the most bullish and most accurate forecasters.
We present below a table in ascending order of maximum price forecast for the year to date (YTD), with the YTD figure included in its correct place in the body of the table itself. This gives a quick visual indication of whose maximum forecast was closest.
2010 LBMA Gold Price Forecasts in US Dollars
| Name | High | Low | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
|
YTD actual at 25-Jan-10
|
$1153 | $1084 | $1125 |
|
Michael Jansen J.P. Morgan Chase Bank
|
$ | $ | $1,218 |
|
Nick Moore RBS Global Banking & Markets
|
$1,250 | $900 | $1,000 |
|
Jeffrey Rhodes INTL Commodities DMCC
|
$1,280 | $980 | $1,137 |
|
James Steel HSBC Bank USA NA
|
$1,300 | $950 | $1,150 |
|
Bhargava Vaidya B.N. Vaidya & Associates
|
$1,300 | $925 | $1,075 |
|
Philip Klapwijk GFMS Ltd
|
$1,340 | $990 | $1,172 |
|
Vincent Huang Solar Applied Materials Technology Corp
|
$1,345 | $1,012 | $1,285 |
|
Martin Murenbeeld Dundee Economics
|
$1,345 | $995 | $1,205 |
|
Bob Takai Sumitomo Corporation
|
$1,350 | $950 | $1,100 |
|
Matthew Turner Virtual Metals
|
$1,350 | $950 | $1,179 |
|
Ruchi Singh ICICI Bank
|
$1,350 | $1,020 | $1,280 |
|
Peter Fertig QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd
|
$1,350 | $950 | $1,185 |
|
Robin Bhar Calyon Credit Acricole CIB
|
$1,350 | $1,050 | $1,215 |
|
Suki Cooper Barclays Capital
|
$1,365 | $925 | $1,180 |
|
Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach Heraeus Metallhandelsgesellschaft m.b.H.
|
$1,375 | $1,050 | $1,175 |
|
Average forecasts
|
$1,394 | $983 | $1,199 |
|
Rene Hochreiter Allan Hochreiter (Pty) Ltd
|
$1,400 | $960 | $1,200 |
|
Jeffrey Christian CPM Group
|
$1,400 | $1,000 | $1,163 |
|
Philip Aubertin UBS Investment Bank
|
$1,415 | $950 | $1,225 |
|
Ross Norman TheBullionDesk
|
$1,425 | $1,080 | $1,236 |
|
Tom Kendall Mitsubishi Corporation (UK) Plc
|
$1,430 | $1,050 | $1,215 |
|
Joerg Ceh Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
|
$1,470 | $920 | $1,198 |
|
Frederic Panizzutti MKS Finance S.A.
|
$1,480 | $950 | $1,268 |
|
Daniel Smith Standard Chartered
|
$1,500 | $900 | $1,150 |
|
Michael Kempinski Commerzbank
|
$1,505 | $975 | $1,295 |
|
Michael Ludwig BNP Paribas
|
$1,530 | $1,050 | $1,290 |
|
David Wilson Société Générale
|
$1,650 | $1,090 | $1,388 |
|
Actual
|
$1,426 | $1,052.25 | $1,226.6646 |
Our Forecast?
We will guess at $1,500 maximum, $1,250 average, and $1,050 minimum.
In retrospect, it looks like our forecast was impressively close to the actual figures. Not bad for an educated guess as opposed to a deeply researched forecast.
Update October 2010
Even though gold has broken new record dollar highs more than 20 times so far during 2010, as at 6th October, it stands at $1,340; and has yet only beaten 4 of the 27 forecasts, and has not yet reached the average forecast figure of $1,394.
In most recent years, gold has ended up near or above the highest forecasts each year.
Longer Term
With much evidence of competitive devaluation and quantitative easing worldwide, we believe that gold has much higher to go. Some goldbugs have been talking about $8,500 per ounce, but we regard this type of foreacast as being from the lunatic fringe, even though some of the pundits have advanced convincing arguments to back their opinions.Meanwhile, we would not be surprised to see $1,700 next year (2011). If confiidence in the U.S. dollar ever crashes, then ever forecast may prove to be too low,
There are still uncertainties and fears about the debts of a number of western countries, and some sovereign credit ratings now stand at junk or near junk. Failure, or near total collapse, of one or more major currencies cannot be ruled out. We remain unconvinced that the dollar will hold its value or purchasing power. Attempts by central banks to gently weaken their currencies can, and have, gone wrong and got out of hand. It will happen again, and it could happen to the mighty dollar, which does not have guaranteed immunity.
Comments
Last year, out of the 24 individual forecasts, 22 had been surpassed as at 2nd December. Almost incredibly, the lowest "high" forecast was actually less than the year's all time low! The "average of all the forecasts has been bettered by 10%.Of the 26 forecasters, for once Ross Norman's is not the most bullish, at 18th, with 7 predicting higher maxima. Will be the closest yet again?
2011
2010 Final Review In January 2011, we were able to complete this page by adding our final review of the year. The highest dollar price $1426.00 was achieved on the a.m. fix on the 7th December, beating 21 of the 27 forecasts. The closest was Ross Norman of TheBulionDesk with a high of $1425.
More Forecasts
Goldman Ups 12-Month Gold Price Forecast to $1,650 - Market Watch
By Claudia Assis
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has raised its 12-month price target for gold to $1,650 an ounce, saying the return of quantitative easing is likely to continue to be strong catalyst for gold. The investment bank and commodities broker also raised its gold price forecast to $1,400 in three months, and to $1,525 in six months. Goldman's economics team "expects the the US Federal Reserve to announce a return to quantitative easing measures as early as the November FOMC meeting. We see this acting as a strong catalyst to carry gold prices to the higher levels that we now forecast," commodity analysts at Goldman said. Gold for December delivery declined Tuesday, off $6.50, or 0.5%, to $1,347.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Relevant Gold Price Pages
Live Spot Gold in 3 Currencies, Dollar, Euros, Sterling
Highest Gold Price in Euros (EUR) - June 2010
Highest Gold Price in Pounds Sterling (GBP) - June 2010
Highest Gold Price in $ US Dollars (USD) - September 2010
Highest Gold Price in all 3 Currencies - September 2010
Historic Gold Price Tables & Chart 1975 - 2004
2009 LBMA Gold Price Forecasts With our comments.
2011 LBMA Gold Price Forecasts
In order of maximum price.
2012 LBMA Gold Price Forecasts With our comments.
The World Gold Council compile regular and abundant statistics on the gold market.
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